This warning about the threat to the Baltic States was shown to be wide of the mark when Putin invaded Ukraine instead. The threat remain, however, while Putin and his clique remain in power.
The Editor,
The Times.

4 August 2016

Sir,
Brexit, Hinckley Point C, Port Talbot, Scottish unrest and other vexations for the new government may well be eclipsed by a forgotten peril further East. Mr Putin is not asleep. His next adventure is likely to be in the Baltic States, which are highly vulnerable to the Russians’ clever mixture of subversion and direct action. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania exactly fit Putin’s profile for de-stabilising the West and asserting Russian power. All were part of the former Soviet Union, all have very large Russian minorities, making them top candidates for the re-establishment of Russian hegemony. All are militarily weak and geographically highly vulnerable – only a narrow corridor gives access from Poland between Kaliningrad and Belarus. All are hostages to fortune in a weak NATO which has been busy disarming itself, most notably the UK, where Hammond’s 2010 Defence Review, excising whole areas of military capacity, did more damage to Britain’s defence than losing a major war. The Baltics are indefensible without a much bigger NATO presence on the ground, which does not exist and without a radical change of mind will not exist. Failure to defend the Baltics might fatally weaken the alliance, presenting the West with an impossible choice between abandoning them and an actual conflict with incalculable consequences.

David Coleman