Foresight Report on the UK Population 2013
This review has been commissioned as part of the UK Government’s Foresight Futures horizon scanning papers. The views expressed do not represent policy of any government or organisation
Foresight Futures:
Demographic Change in the UK
David Coleman
Oxford University
March 2013
Author’s note, December 2022.
This report, commissioned by the Government Office for Science, was never published. The Foresight team took an unusually active role in editing the successive drafts submitted. The author did not agree with all these alterations and this draft was submitted to Foresight Futures according to deadline with some reluctance faut de mieux. It was not in a suitable format for publication otherwise but now that a website is available I have taken the opportunity of presenting it here. Although much has changed in the last nine years I hope that enough of the material remains valid and that it may be useful to the reader, always keeping in mind that it is a snapshot of the UK as in 2013.
Since then three major developments have changed the demographic scene. First was the Covid 19 pandemic a threat long warned against but impossible to forecast. From April 2020 to May 2022 there were 177,977 deaths from covid in the UK within 28 days of a positive test; 67,350 deaths in 2021where covid was the underlying cause (11.5% of all deaths) and 73,766 in 2020 (12.1 %). In England the pandemic is not yet over; while there were no deaths on 12 December 2022 the 7 day average was 57. By comparison the four cholera epidemics of 1831 – 1866 which caused such panic, led to 108,969 deaths.
Partly as a consequence of the economic shutdowns during Covid, and the uncertainties following Brexit in 2016, total fertility in England and Wales fell from 1.81 in 2016 to 1.70 in 2018 and 1.58 in 2020 (the lowest recorded), recovering slightly to 1.61 in 2021. ONS projections assume that low fertility will persist, reducing projected UK population growth.
Migration patterns were powerfully affected by Brexit, which ended free movement from the EU. Net migration from the EU accordingly fell substantially, becoming negligible and in some years negative. The desire to reduce migration inflows was the single most important factor behind the Brexit vote but supporters of Leave have not achieved their aim. Employers, alarmed by shortages of labour on which they had become dependent have been quick to switch recruitment to non-European countries; previous levels have persisted; net migration in 2021 was 230,000. Despite previous promises, here is no inclination on the part of the present government to reduce migration; ‘control’ does not mean ‘reduce’. Recent political reverses, however, have provoked a flurry of restrictive measures.
Since the turn of the century, the direct and indirect effects of migration have accounted for over 80 percent of UK population growth, in recent years almost all of it The 2021 census confirmed the trend evident in 2011, of the advance on ethnic minority populations to become the overall majority in major urban areas, London, Birmingham, , Leicester and others. In some London Boroughs the ‘White British’ population has declined to about 10 percent of the total.
The 2021 census confirmed the trend evident from 2001 to 2011 of the advance of ethnic minority populations to become the overall majority in major urban centres: London, Birmingham, Leicester and others. In some London Boroughs the ‘White British’ population had fallen to 15 percent of the total.